Brazil's presidential race is tightening, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in a simulated second-round matchup, according to a new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll.
The survey gives Bolsonaro 46.4% support compared with 46.2% for Lula, putting the two candidates within a narrow 0.2 percentage-point difference. With a margin of error of one percentage point, the result represents a statistical tie.
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The latest figures mark a significant change from an AtlasIntel poll conducted in late August. At that time, Lula was ahead with 47.1%, while Bolsonaro had 42.6%, indicating that the opposition candidate has gained ground in the latest survey.
The poll surveyed 5,000 people between September 4 and 9, giving the latest reading a broad sample as Brazil moves closer to the October presidential election.
Other recent surveys have also pointed to an increasingly competitive contest. A Quaest poll released earlier this week showed Lula and Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a simulated runoff, while another poll commissioned by BTG Pactual gave Bolsonaro a narrow numerical advantage.
The close numbers highlight the uncertainty surrounding the election. Polling results can shift during a campaign, and the margin of error means small differences between candidates should not be interpreted as a definitive lead.
Lula is seeking another term in office, while Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the leading candidate for Brazil's political right. The contest has become increasingly polarised as both sides campaign for support ahead of the vote.
With the candidates now separated by only a fraction of a percentage point in the latest AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, the coming weeks are likely to be closely watched as the presidential campaign enters its final stage.