Economist and Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Bismarck Rewane, has projected that Nigeria’s economy could expand from about $278 billion in 2025 to approximately $600 billion by 2030, with the planned Dangote Refinery expansion contributing to the growth.
Rewane made the projection in Abuja during an investor roadshow for the proposed Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals. He said increased private-sector investment and the wider economic effects of major industrial projects could significantly improve Nigeria’s growth outlook.
According to his projections, annual real GDP growth could rise from around four per cent to between seven and eight per cent, while inflation could moderate to between eight and 10 per cent. Investment as a share of GDP could also increase from 26 per cent to 36 per cent.
Rewane said the refinery’s planned expansion would increase its capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to about 1.4 million barrels per day. He argued that greater domestic refining could reduce dependence on imported petroleum products while creating additional economic activity across manufacturing, energy and other sectors.
The proposed IPO is expected to raise about N2.15 trillion, with 4.1 billion ordinary shares offered at N525 per share. The proceeds are expected to support the refinery’s expansion programme.
The offering has also attracted support from the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), which urged its members nationwide to consider investing in the refinery’s shares.
IPMAN National President Abubakar Shettima said the IPO provides petroleum marketers with an opportunity to move beyond being purchasers of refined products and become shareholders in a major domestic refining asset.
The association also called on Dangote Refinery to expand its direct petrol allocation system to cover all registered independent petroleum marketers. IPMAN said broader access could help reduce distribution bottlenecks, logistics costs and other challenges affecting the movement of locally refined fuel.
IPMAN further urged the Federal Government to discourage unnecessary petrol imports, arguing that greater reliance on domestic refining could reduce pressure on foreign exchange and strengthen the local petroleum supply chain.
The Dangote Refinery IPO is scheduled to open to investors on September 14, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares costing N5,250. The company has also released approved channels through which investors can subscribe, warning the public against unauthorised platforms.
Rewane's $600 billion projection remains an economic forecast rather than a guaranteed outcome. Its realisation would depend on sustained investment, refinery expansion, stronger production, improved energy supply and broader economic conditions over the coming years.