A new YouGov mega poll has projected that Labour would emerge as the largest party in the UK Parliament if a general election were held tomorrow, while Reform UK has fallen to third place in the latest seat projection.
The MRP poll, commissioned by Sky News and The Times, is the first such projection from YouGov in a year. It suggests a significant change in the political landscape, with Labour returning to first place after Reform UK previously led the projection.
The poll projects a hung parliament, meaning no single party would secure enough seats to form a government with an overall majority. Labour would also remain well short of the number of seats required for a Commons majority.
The survey involved 14,000 respondents, with fieldwork conducted between August 23 and September 18, according to Sky News. MRP polling uses national and constituency-level data to estimate how voting patterns could translate into parliamentary seats.
The findings also point to a change in Labour's position since Andy Burnham became prime minister. According to the projection, Labour would recover around half of the seats that YouGov had previously projected could move from Labour to Reform.
Reform UK's movement down the projection represents a notable change from the previous YouGov MRP conducted a year earlier, when the party was projected to win the largest number of seats. The latest figures therefore highlight the volatility of current voter intentions.
For Nigel Farage and Reform UK, the poll comes amid a period of increased competition on the right of British politics. Other polling has also recorded changes in Reform's support and public attitudes towards Farage, although different surveys produce different results depending on their methodology and timing.
The latest projection does not indicate that Labour has secured a future election victory. It is a snapshot of voter sentiment based on polling conducted before the hypothetical election date, and political support can change significantly before an actual general election.
The results instead illustrate how quickly Britain's political landscape has shifted since the previous general election, with Labour attempting to rebuild support while Reform UK, the Conservatives and other parties compete for voters across different parts of the electorate.